In this week’s recap: Stocks soar, despite mixed messages on fiscal stimulus.
Weekly Economic Update
Presented by Paul Moffat, MBA, AIF®, October 12, 2020
THE WEEK ON WALL STREET
Stocks staged a powerful rally last week, riding a wave of optimism over the prospect of the passage of a new fiscal stimulus bill.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.27%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 increased 3.84%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 4.56% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 2.23%.1-3
The anticipation of lawmakers passing a new round of economic stimulus was a decisive driver of market action all week.
A mid-week tweet by President Trump announcing that he was ending stimulus negotiations sent stocks lower. Losses were exacerbated by sharp declines in some mega-cap technology companies as details emerged from a House Judiciary subcommittee report on its investigation into their competitive practices.4
Stocks quickly reversed direction, climbing after the President tweeted that he would sign a limited stimulus bill, but lawmakers appeared to reject a piecemeal approach.
Stocks consolidated on Friday, helped by continuing stimulus talks and new election polls that suggested that the risk of a contested outcome appeared to be fading.
Small Cap Rally
The outperformance of large cap stocks relative to small cap stocks has been both wide and persistent during the last ten years. Last week’s action in small cap stocks, as represented by the Russell 2000 Index, indicates that smaller companies may finally be making up some ground.5
Last week, the Russell 2000 Index rose 6.33%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 2.4%.6
While this outperformance may be fleeting, a potential broadening of the stock market rally may be considered a healthy development.
This week begins the third-quarter earnings season, with companies from a variety of industry sectors reporting (see below). Early earnings reports start predominantly with the major banks, whose earnings results may provide insight into the general health of American consumers.
As is often the case, company guidance about the future earnings may be of greater interest to investors than past results.
T I P O F T H E W E E K
Use your phone or camera to take a video of your home and your belongings. Keep it in a safe place. It may come in handy someday.
THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Thursday: Jobless Claims.
Friday: Industrial Production. Consumer Sentiment.
Source: Econoday, October 9, 2020
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Tuesday: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Blackrock (BLK).
Wednesday: Bank of America (BAC), UnitedHealth Group (UNH).
Thursday: Morgan Stanley (MS).
Friday: Schlumberger (SLB), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Kansas City Southern (KSU), V.F. Corporation (VFC).
Source: Zacks, October 9, 2020
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
Q U O T E O F T H E W E E K
“He who has a ‘why’ to live can bear almost any ‘how.’”
T H E W E E K L Y R I D D L E
Al gives Jane three boxes, one labeled DIAMONDS, one labeled PEARLS and one labeled DIAMONDS OR PEARLS. He tells her that all three boxes are labeled incorrectly, and that one box contains diamonds, one pearls and the other emeralds. Al then tells Jane that if she can guess the contents of any box without opening it, she can keep the contents. How many boxes must Jane open to do this, and/or how many boxes can she keep?
LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: In 15 minutes, a dress will dry on a clothes wire. How long would it take you to dry five dresses?
ANSWER: 15 Minutes. They all dry at the same rate and at the same time on a clothes wire.
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Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.
The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020
2. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020
3. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020
4. CNBC.com, October 6, 2020
5. The Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2020
6. The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020
The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020
The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2020
Treasury.gov, October 9, 2020